With four weeks left in the season, there are still six division crowns and 10 total playoff spots up for grabs. Congratulations to the Packers and 49ers, who have clinched the NFC North and West, respectively. Meanwhile, here’s a look at what can happen this week:
NFC
CLINCHED:
Green Bay Packers — North Division
San Francisco 49ers — West Division
ELIMINATED:
Minnesota, St. Louis
GREEN BAY PACKERS
Green Bay clinches a first-round bye:
1) GB win
2) GB tie + NO loss or tie
3) NO loss
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
New Orleans clinches South Division title:
1) NO win + ATL loss
New Orleans clinches wild card spot:
1) NO win + DET loss
2) NO win + CHI loss
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
New England clinches East Division title:
1) NE win + NYJ loss
HOUSTON TEXANS
Houston clinches South Division title:
1) HOU win + TEN loss
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Pittsburgh clinches wild card spot:
1) PIT win + CIN loss + NYJ loss + TEN loss
2) PIT win + CIN loss + NYJ loss + DEN loss + OAK loss
3) PIT win + CIN loss + TEN loss + DEN loss + OAK loss
This time last week, there was plenty of buzz that the 49ers had a chance to become the first team in the NFL to clinch a playoff spot this season. A Thanksgiving night loss to the Ravens delayed that inevitability, and it also opens the door for the defending Super Bowl champion Packers to become the first team with an asterisk next to their names in this season’s standings.
Here are the playoff scenarios heading into Week 13:
NFC
CLINCHED: None
ELIMINATED: Minnesota, St. Louis.
GREEN BAY PACKERS
Green Bay clinches North Division title:
1) GB win + DET loss or tie
2) GB tie + CHI loss or tie + DET loss
3) CHI loss + DET loss
Green Bay clinches a playoff spot:
1) GB win
2) GB tie + CHI loss or tie
3) CHI loss
4) ATL loss
5) DET loss
6) NO loss + ATL tie
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
San Francisco clinches West Division title:
1) SF win or tie
2) SEA loss or tie + ARI loss or tie
Think the Bears’ playoff chances are done without Jay Cutler? Can the same be said about the Texans without Matt Schaub? Not according to Brian Billick and Jim Mora. Hear what the coaches have to say about those teams’ chances going forward, as well as other hot topics around the league in this week’s podcast.
Did Falcons coach Mike Smith make the right decision by going for it on fourth-and-inches in overtime against the Saints? Brian Billick and Jim Mora discuss this and all the hot topics around the league, including the rise of the 49ers and collapse of the Ravens in this week’s Coaches Show podcast.
After Baltimore’s surprising Week 7 loss to Jacksonville, the focus was on the fact that RB Ray Rice had a mere eight rushing attempts in that game. In each of the next two weeks, Rice’s workload was bumped up to 18 carries — and the Ravens came out on top. So it’s somewhat distressing for Ravens fans that Rice then had a season-low five carries in Sunday’s loss to the Seahawks.
While the chart below shows that the Ravens are not giving Rice a consistent workload, the formula is pretty simple: When Rice has more than 15 carries this season, the Ravens are 5-0. When Rice runs the ball less than 15 times, they are 1-3.
Jason Witten still has a long way to go to catch Tony Gonzalez, the NFL record-holder for career receptions by a tight end, but the Cowboys TE does deserve congratulations for passing Hall of Famer Ozzie Newsome on Sunday to move into third on the all-time list. In his ninth season, Witten currently has 666 career receptions.
With Gonzalez at the top of the list, Witten third and Antonio Gates fifth, that means three of the top five pass-catching tight ends in NFL history are currently active. the other two, Newsome and Shannon Sharpe, are in the Hall of Fame.
We’re halfway through the season and the usual suspects are still on pace to shatter Dan Marino‘s single-season passing record. Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers all are in position to break the mark of 5,084 yards. And Chargers QB Philip Rivers is not far behind.
As NFL Network’s Michael Lombardi pointed out in his Monday column, the New England Patriots need to outscore their opponents this season because the defense just isn’t strong enough. Based on the trend, the offense could be in a bit of trouble. After a monster first month of the season, their scoring has trended downward.
On Wednesday, we looked at how the division leaders stack up in terms of total defense. So today we decided to see how the eight first-place teams stack up when you take into account their overall ranking for both total offense and total defense. One thing to note is that there isn’t a great deal of balance among these teams. Only two of the division leaders — the Steelers and Texans — rank in the top 10 of both categories.
There was an interesting note this week in the NFL Media research packet pointing out that the top eight teams in the NFL in total defense all come from the AFC. Pretty crazy, considering it used to be that the NFC was known for rugged defense and the AFC was known for high-scoring aerial attacks.
But if you look strictly at the eight division leaders around the NFL right now, there’s less of a dichotomy. That’s because three first-place teams in the NFC give up fewer yards per game than AFC leaders Buffalo and Kansas City. Of course, the only undefeated team in the NFL, the Green Bay Packers, ranks 28th in the league in total defense… so what does it all mean, anyway?
Last week, we mentioned that Tom Brady would have to have an absolutely abysmal game in Pittsburgh to drop off the pace to break Dan Marino‘s record for most passing yards in a season. Well, he’s still on pace to shatter that mark of 5,084, but Brady’s bad day actually pushed him down to third on the list of candidates to set the new mark. Drew Brees now tops the list, followed by Aaron Rodgers. And Eli Manning, who faces that porous Patriots pass defense this week, is not far behind. As a reminder, we will continue to update this record chase every week until there are less than three QBs in the hunt.
The San Francisco 49ers are running away with the NFC West this season. Hard to believe we’d be saying that halfway through the season, but then again, it’s not as if the rest of the division is mounting much of a challenge. Perhaps the biggest surprise, though, is the success of 49ers QB Alex Smith, who had been written off by many critics before the season ever began. Yet it is Smith’s consistency that has helped San Francisco build a big lead in the division, and he is far ahead of the NFC West’s other three starting quarterbacks when it comes to passer rating.
We’re almost at the midpoint of the 2011 season and more than half the teams in the NFL have a winning record. So much for parity, eh? Usually, there are more teams in the middle of the pack. As of now, though, teams at .500 make up the minority.
By now, you’ve heard that teams coming off their bye weeks are off to a slow start this season. Just to hammer home that point, here’s a reminder that teams coming off their bye weeks have been at .500 or better in each of the last four seasons.
At 3-9 so far this season, there’s a lot of catching up to do. Of course, if this is to be a downward trend in 2011, that’s bad news for the Bills, Bengals, Patriots, Giants, Eagles and 49ers. Those are the six teams coming off their byes this weekend.
Cowboys fans no doubt are still giddy over the 253-yard rushing effort by rookie RB DeMarco Murray in Week 7. Forget the fact that it’s a single-game franchise record, because a bit more context makes the performance even more impressive.
Murray’s performance was the ninth-best rushing game of all-time. Among the top 10 rushing games ever, Murray joins a list that includes two Hall of Famers (Walter Payton, O.J. Simpson) and at least one potential future Hall of Famer (Adrian Peterson). While he’s still 388 yards behind current rushing leader Peterson, it should also be noted that four of the top 11 performances of all-time were turned in by guys who went on to win the rushing title that season.