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It’s already time to downgrade Hester, Olsen

Last week, I discussed in my fantasy blog that the addition of Mike Martz as the Bears new offensive coordinator was a real positive for the value of Jay Cutler. I also said that it will be a statictical death sentence for Greg Olsen.

Well, that appears already appears to be the case eight-plus months before the start of the 2010 NFL season.

In a recent interview with WSCR in Chicago, Martz suggested that one of Olsen’s main roles in the offense will be as a blocker.

“All tight ends, their first responsibility, they have to put their hand down on the line of scrimmage and be a successful blocker, and then they move to receiving,” Martz said. “To just skip by that and say, ‘He’s a terrific receiver,’ well, then you might as well just put another wide receiver in there.”

While Olsen did put up career numbers last season, owners who had him in their lineups knew that he lacked a consistent level of production.

Now that he’ll be stuck blocking at the line of scrimmage more often, his outlook for 2010 will be bleak indeed.

Remember, no tight end has ever had 40 or more receptions in a Martz-led offense. So while Olsen was a breakout candidate heading into last season, he’ll now be lableled as a potential bust.

Olsen isn’t the only member of the Bears who’s fantasy value is on the decline, either.

Martz also said that he envisions using Devin Hester in the slot and reducing his offensive snaps so he can focus more on being a return specialist.

“It would be very difficult for him to play every snap on offense and still play effectively on special teams,” Martz said.

While this news does help the value of the Bears DST, it makes Hester much less of an option in standard leagues. In fact, he’ll be worth no more than a late-round pick in larger leagues.

The Bears wide receivers to target in 2010 drafts are Devin Aromashodu and Johnny Knox, who are in line to start and benefit the most from Martz’s pass-laden system.

McNabb trade would spark fantasy domino effect

If you listen to Eagles coach Andy Reid, Donovan McNabb will be his quarterback for the 2010 season. But the speculation about a possible trade has started regardless.

The most recent report, this one from the Philadelphia Daily News, suggests that several teams have called about the possibility of trading for McNabb, Kevin Kolb or Michael Vick.

The Arizona Cardinals, who lost Kurt Warner to retirement, and the Minnesota Vikings, who might lose Brett Favre to retirement, are the two teams that have been mentioned with McNabb.

The Browns have ties to the Eagles, as Reid’s mentor, Mike Holmgren, is now the team president. Neither Brady Quinn nor Derek Anderson has shown a consistent level of success, so the Browns could inquire about Kolb.

There has also been a lot of interest in Vick, as reports have both the Bills and Rams as potential suitors.

All of this talk about the Eagles’ quarterbacks is certain to continue throughout the offseason, and any future moves would make an impact on fantasy football.

McNabb will remain a starting fantasy quarterback regardless of where he lands, though a move to Arizona would make him even more attractive with the weapons in that offense. Kolb, who showed flashes of potential in 2009, would become a fantasy reserve and matchup-based starter if he landed a prominent role with a new team.

And then there’s Vick, who was once considered a top-10 fantasy quarterback before his off-the-field issues landed him in prison. While it’s hard to see him re-emerging into a superstar, Vick would have much more value as a starter in 2010.

During what promises to be a very interesing offseason, fantasy owners should be sure to monitor what goes down with these three quarterbacks.

Cowboys RB Barber could fall on depth chart

Marion Barber was once considered one of the better running backs in fantasy football. But after two disappointing seasons in a row, it appears that he’ll be in a fight to keep the top spot on the depth chart in Dallas.

Last month, a report surfaced that Barber’s proneness to injuries could alter his role in the offense. Cowboys owner and general manager Jerry Jones seemed to echo that sentiment.

“We have had an injury issue there at the end of each of the last two seasons,” Jones told the Dallas Morning News. “That may have something to do with the amount of time we can give the other backs. That could impact that decision.”

Now a new report suggests that Barber “could slip to the bottom of the pecking order at running back” if he doesn’t show improvement, especially now that Felix Jones and Tashard Choice have proven themselves as viable alternatives.

Jones became the most valuable back in Dallas late in the 2009 season and during the team’s playoff run. Choice, who was a star down the stretch in 2007, can also be an impact maker if allowed the chance.

How this situation plays out remains to be seen, but it’s pretty certain that Barber’s role is on the decline.

Whether it was due to injuries or other factors, it was very evident that Barber was dancing behind the line of scrimmage instead of putting his head down and running hard through it late in the season.

He’ll have to get back to that hard-nosed running style if he wants to hold off Jones and Choice in 2010. Regardless, we’re going to be looking another dreaded RBBC straight in the face.

Check out the best images from Media Day

CLICK on the photo to see all of the best images from our photographers in Florida for the Super Bowl. (Ben Liebenberg / NFL.com)

I’m avoiding Redskins RB Portis next season

Clinton Portis was once considered one of the best running backs in fantasy football. Whether it was earlier in his career with the Broncos or more recently with the Redskins, he was a virtual lock to rush for well over 1,000 yards and score double-digit touchdowns.

But as is the case with most great running backs, time and the wear and tear of a featured role at the NFL level has left Portis a shell of his former self.

That was evident last season, as a concussion limited him to eight games.

According to the Washington Post, he still hasn’t been medically cleared from the concussion all these months later. Regardless, Portis thinks he can still be an effective option for coach Mike Shanahan in 2010.

“I’m far from washed up or done,” Portis said. “I will walk away from this game when I’m ready. The game’s not gonna pass me by.”

Portis might think he still had something left in the tank, but I don’t see it.

While he still hasn’t reach that dreaded age of 30, Portis has seen more rushing attempts during his career than most backs. Since 2004, he has carried the ball 325 or more times in four of six seasons.

The two seasons he failed to reach that mark were shortened due to injuries.

His past greatness aside, fantasy football is all about the present and more importantly, the future. And while his reunion with Shanahan is seen as a positive, I doubt Portis will return to his elite status or become a reliable option for owners.

That’s if the Redskins even decide to bring him back.

Assuming he remains in Washington, I project Portis as more than a borderline, risk-reward No. 2 fantasy back or flex starter. But his heavy career workload and recent injuries make him someone I’d rather avoid in drafts.

Cutler’s stock on the rise with Martz in Chicago

The Chicago Bears have hired Mike Martz to take over their offense. The presence of Martz, a long-time coach and coordinator at the NFL level, will have a major effect on the value of several players.

Atop that list is strong-armed but turnover-prone quarterback Jay Cutler.

Martz’s resume as an offensive guru is well documented. He led the “Greatest Show on Turf” during his time with the Rams, a unit that was loaded with fantasy superstarrs like Kurt Warner, Marshall Faulk, Torry Holt and Issac Bruce.

In seven seasons with the team, Martz’s quarterbacks threw for 3,400-plus yards five times. In 2000, Warner (11 starts) and Trent Green (five starts) combined to throw for an amazing 5,492 yards and 37 touchdowns.

He’s a perfect fit for Cutler, who was a major disappointment for fantasy owners in his first season in the Windy City. While he did throw for 3,666 yards and 27 touchdowns (eight in the final two weeks), Cutler also committed 27 turnovers.

With Martz at the helm and what looks like a very favorable schedule, Cutler is a virtual lock to throw for 4,000 yards and 25-30 touchdowns in 2010. If he can make smarter decisions and cut down on his turnovers, I can see him re-emerging as a No. 1 fantasy option.

If Cutler is going to see his numbers rise, well, then it only makes sense the wide receivers around him are in for a spike in value as well.

I’d expect Martz to utilize the speed of WRs Devin Aromashodu, Devin Hester and Johnny Knox, all of whom will have a chance to post their best numbers at the NFL level. Aromashodu, who finished last season on fire, now figures to be one of the top fantasy sleepers of 2010.

Owners in PPR keeper leagues also have to feel much better about the immediate future of Matt Forte.

The biggest bust in fantasy football last season, Forte’s stock is back on the rise with Martz calling the shots. Faulk, Kevin Jones and Frank Gore were all prominent options in his offenses, especially in the passing game.

Faulk had some of his best statistical seasons at the NFL level under Martz, and Jones was on his way to a career season with the Lions in 2006 before injuries landed him on the sidelines. In 12 games, Jones was on pace for 89 receptions, 1,612 scrimmage yards and 11 touchdowns.

Overall, the top running back in Martz’s offense has always had at least some level of statistical success. Since Forte’s skill set fits the mold of the ideal Martz runner, I’d expect him to rebound from a poor 2009 campaign and become a reliable No. 2 fantasy option.

If there’s one player who won’t benefit from the Martz hiring, it’s Greg Olsen.

Martz has never had a history of using tight ends prominently in the passing game. Vernon Davis, the top tight end in fantasy football in 2009, saw just 49 targets and caught a mere 31 passes under Martz in 2008.

What’s more, no tight end in a Martz-led offense has ever caught more than 38 passes in a single season. If that trend continues, Olsen will be no more than a No. 2 fantasy tight end in 2010.

QB Vick should have more draft value in 2010

Eagles QB Michael Vick appears to be on the fast track to being fantasy relevant once again in 2010.

According to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the Rams are “seriously considering” trading for Vick in the offseason. Marc Bulger appears to be out of the mix, so the Rams will soon be in need of a quarterback.

Vick knows Rams GM Billy Devaney from their time together in Atlanta, so it seems like a nice fit.

While it’s hard to envision a scenario where Vick would re-claim his status as a No. 1 fantasy quarterback, it looks like he could turn into a valuable reserve. There are at least six teams with a need at quarterback, including the Rams and Bills, so Vick will no doubt warrant some attention.

Speaking of Eagles quarterbacks, is it possible that Donovan McNabb might be heading to Minnesota?

Rumors have swirled that if Brett Favre decides to retire, the Vikings would look to acquire McNabb from the Eagles. Vikings coach Brad Childress knows McNabb well from their time together in Philadelphia, so he’d be a nice fit in purple and yellow.

Of course, that all depends on Favre. And if we’ve learned one thing about the future Hall of Famer, it’s that he likes to take his time making up his mind.

Hypothetically, let’s say that Favre does retire and McNabb lands in Minnesota.

The combination of those two situations would make Kevin Kolb a serious sleeper in fantasy circles. He showed flashes of brilliance in McNabb’s absence last season, and he’d put up some nice numbers in the pass-laden offense of coach Andy Reid.

One thing is for sure: fantasy owners need to keep close tabs on what’s going on with these potential scenarios.

LA native Johnson wants an NFL team to move back

MOBILE Ala. — Talk of a potential NFL team relocating to Los Angeles has picked up steam in recent weeks. NFL Network’s Jason La Canfora reported recently that ‘It will happen at some point’ and that he expects it to be sooner, rather than later.

Well, count USC RB Stafon Johnson as one who would like to see it happen.

“I feel great (about that happening),” said Johnson. “I hope I can get back there with them!”

Johnson was born and raised in Los Angeles, before going to play for his hometown school. He was only six years old when the Rams and Raiders both left Los Angeles.

Jason Feller

Cowboys RB Barber to lose carries in 2010?

The decision to draft running backs mired in committee situations is difficult enough for fantasy owners.

Now it appears we can add Marion Barber to the list of runners who’s stock is on the decline.

Cowboys owner and general manager Jerry Jones admitted that Barber’s recent proneness to injuries could alter how carries are distributed in the future according to a report on the Dallas Morning News.

“We have had an injury issue there at the end of each of the last two seasons,” Jones said. “That may have something to do with the amount of time we can give the other backs. That could impact that decision.”

Fantasy owners couldn’t trust Barber for most of the 2009 season, as injuries dragged his stock down to the point of him being almost unstartable down the stretch.

In fact, Felix Jones became the most valuable back in Dallas late in the season.

The Arkansas product has always had potential, but he’s also had his own problem with injuries. And let’s not forget about Tashard Choice, who proved in the past that he can be a viable fantasy option when allowed a chance.

How this situation plays out remains to be seen, but it could be Choice that sees more work on passing downs while Barber and Jones share the early-down work.

In other words, we’re going to be looking another dreaded RBBC straight in the face.

If the Cowboys continue to use the same offensive philosophies that led them to the Divisional Round of the playoffs, however, the duo of Tony Romo and Miles Austin will be the big fantasy names in Big D.

The end of a fantasy football era

If you’ve been playing fantasy football for the last five years, you know about the enormous impact of LaDainian Tomlinson.

Since 2004, L.T. has finished no worse than sixth in fantasy points among running backs on NFL.com. He finished third behind Shaun Alexander and Larry Johnson in 2005, and was the top-scoring runner in 2006 and 2007.

But just like the rest of us, age finally caught up with him.

This past season at the age of 30 (when so many running backs before him also broke down), Tomlinson finished with career lows in yards and ranked just 20th in fantasy points at his position.

Now comes a report from the San Diego Union Tribune that 2009 was likely the last for Tomlinson in a Chargers uniform.

The future Hall-of-Fame running back is due a $2 million roster bonus in March and $5 million in salary, neither of which the team is expected to pay. That means that within the next few months, one of the greatest running backs in fantasy football will be unemployeed.

Of course, this isn’t the first time something like this has happened. We all remember an aging O.J. Simpson with the 49ers, Eric Dickerson in Atlanta, Tony Dorsett wearing a Broncos uniform and Emmitt Smith in Arizona.

Next season, it looks like Tomlinson will be wearing something other than Chargers blue and yellow. But wherever he lands, L.T. won’t be re-gaining his status as an elite fantasy player.

He might not even be a starter for his next franchise.

Just like Marshall Faulk was replaced by Priest Holmes, Holmes was replaced by Shaun Alexander and Alexander was replaced by Tomlinson, now Tomlinson has been replaced as the top running back in fantasy football.

And the new king of the mountain is Chris Johnson.

The Titans running back broke Faulk’s record for scrimmage yards in a single season in 2009, and finished as the top-scoring player on NFL.com. Based on those numbers, he’ll be consensus top pick in most 2010 drafts.

Yes my fantasy friends, the times they are changing.

Whether it’s the fall of Tomlinson, the rise of Johnson or the increased value of quarterbacks in 2010, we too have to change to take home a league championship.

Gailey hire good news for Bills RB Jackson

The Buffalo Bills have hired Chan Gailey to be their next head coach. While the move might not elicit much excitement on the surface, it should be a positive for the fantasy value of Fred Jackson.

Gailey has been in charge of several offensive attacks in his time in the NFL, and almost all of them put the focus on a running back.

Broncos RB Bobby Humphrey averaged 1,331 scrimmage yards and scored a combined 15 touchdowns under Gailey (1989-1990).

Gailey took over the offense in Pittsburgh in 1996 and RB Jerome Bettis averaged 1,548 rushing yards and scored 18 times over the next two years.

Gailey’s offense also included mobile quarterback Kordell Stewart who rushed for 11 touchdowns in 1997.

Gailey’s next stop was Dallas, where he had arguably the greatest running back of all time, Emmitt Smith. Smith rushed for more than 1,300 yards twice and found the end zone a combined 28 times in two seasons under Gailey.

Gailey next went to Miami to become the offensive coordinator for Dave Wannstedt after being fired in Dallas. From out of his system arose a fantasy sleeper, Lamar Smith, who rushed for over 1,100 yards and scored 16 total touchdowns in 2000.

While his most recent stop as a coordinator didn’t lead to a 1,000-yard rusher, it’s hard to blame Gailey for that lack of success. After all, his featured runner was Larry Johnson.

L.J. posted just 874 yards in 2008, but he missed four games that season and was clearly on the downside of his career.

The same can’t be said of Jackson, who’s coming off a career season and should be considered the favorite to start ahead of the troubled Marshawn Lynch in 2010.

Gailey will no doubt use the strength of his offense, and that strength is without question Jackson and the ground attack.

It seems like a perfect fit for Jackson, both on the field and from a fantasy perspective. Unless Gailey goes to a pure committee situation, I’d consider Jackson a viable No. 2 fantasy back in drafts.

Greene’s fantasy value rising in the postseason

When the Jets moved up in the 2009 NFL Draft to take Iowa’s Shonn Greene, they obviosuly saw something in the brusing running back.

Now, the rest of the NFL and fantasy football world is seeing it as well.

Greene has been an absolute beast in the postseason, rushing for a combined 263 yards with two touchdowns in wins over the Bengals and Chargers. He’s also seen more of the workload than Thomas Jones, who has posted 29 postseason carries to Greene’s 44.

With at least one more game on the slate for the Men in Green, fantasy owners will continue to have a window into the future of one of the league’s top sleepers for 2010.

While a true featured role could be tough to attain (after all, Jones did finish fifth among running backs in fantasy points on NFL.com), Greene will no doubt see more opportunities in the Jets’ run-based offense going forward.

Jones will also be 32 at the start of next season, so this could be the start of a “passing of the torch” from the old veteran to the upstart rookie.

Johnson headlines 2009 All-Fantasy team

The Associated Press released its 2009 NFL All-Pro team Thursday, a list headlined by Titans running back Chris Johnson. Not surprisingly, Johnson is also the top name in NFL.com’s All-Fantasy team.

Here’s a look at the best of the best (based on fantasy points) from the 2009 season:

First team

Quarterback – Aaron Rodgers, Packers (327 points)
Running backs – Chris Johnson, Titans (329 points); Adrian Peterson, Vikings (265 points)
Wide receivers – Andre Johnson, Texans (205 points); Randy Moss, Patriots (196 points)
Tight end – Vernon Davis, 49ers (168 points)
Kicker – Nate Kaeding, Chargers (158 points)
Defense – Jets (252 points)

Second team

Quarterback – Drew Brees, Saints (280 points)
Running backs – Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars (255 points); Ray Rice, Ravens (228 points)
Wide receivers – Miles Austin, Cowboys (194 points); Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals (180 points)
Tight end – Dallas Clark, Colts (163 points)
Kicker -David Akers, Eagles (152 points)
Defense – Packers (243 points)

Welker’s fantasy status for 2010 in question

Wes Welker's fantasy value for 2010 is in question after suffering a serious knee injury. (Robert E. Klein / Associated Press)

Patriots WR Wes Welker might be one of the most underrated players in fantasy football.

He’s posted a combined 346 receptions for 3,668 yards in his last three seasons, but you still never hear him mentioned in the same breathe as the likes of Randy Moss, Andre Johnson or Reggie Wayne.

Unfortunately, that trend is likely to continue in 2010.

Welker suffered tears to his medial collateral and anterior crucitate ligaments in the team’s regular-season finale, and the MCL needs to heal before doctors can repair the ACL.

That means Welker will have to wait before having a major reconstructive operation.

It also means his status for the start of next season is in serious doubt.

If he has to wait another month for the MCL to heal, for example, it backs up his rehab and in turns makes him a candidate to miss training camp. In a worst-case scenario, Welker might wind up on the Pysically-unable-to-perform list.

That would force him to miss the first six weeks of the regular season.

While it’s still very early in the offseason, that sort of scenario would make Welker a major risk-reward selection in fantasy drafts. His absence for any part of the season would also hurt the value of Moss, who would see more defensive attention without Welker on the field.

On a positive note, Julian Edelman would be a much more attractive option. He filled in well for Welker this season and would no doubt continue to see a solid number of targets if he remains in a prominent role to start 2010.

If you’re looking for an early sleeper, Edelman could be a great choice.

Carroll’s teams haven’t had much fantasy success

The Seattle Seahawks have hired Pete Carroll to be their new coach, luring him away from Southern California after nine years with the school.

It will be Carroll’s third stint in the NFL. He was the head man for the New York Jets in 1994 and for the New England Patriots from 1997-1999. The true fantasy impact of Carroll’s hiring is yet to be determined, as he still has to hire an offensive coordinator.

John Carlson scored seven touchdowns in 2009. (Elaine Thompson / Associated Press)

But looking back at his previous NFL teams, many of Carroll’s players didn’t have great fantasy success.

In Carroll’s lone season with the Jets, Boomer Esiason threw for just 2,782 yards with 17 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. His leading rusher was Johnny Johnson, who recorded 42 receptions, 1,234 scrimmage yards and five total touchdowns. Wideout Rob Moore led the team with 1,010 yards and six scores.

One player who did post good numbers was Johnny Mitchell. The tight end finished with 58 receptions, 749 yards and four touchdowns.

In New England, Drew Bledsoe averaged 3,775 passing yards with 22 touchdown passes and 17 interceptions under Carroll’s watch. Those numbers made him a viable No. 1 fantasy quarterback, but he wasn’t an elite option.

Carroll also had two 1,000-yard running backs in Curtis Martin (1997) and Robert Edwards (1998), but neither posted numbers that made him more than a No. 2 fantasy option.

Believe it or not, Terry Glenn was the lone wideout to post a 1,000-yard season (1999) while Carroll was with the Patriots.

Unfortunately, he scored just four touchdowns.

The Patriots did have one of the best fantasy tight ends in the league at the time, though, as Ben Coates combined for 165 receptions and 16 touchdowns in those three seasons.

With a lot of questions still yet to be answered in Seattle, looking at the numbers of Carroll’s previous players is interesting but not a be all, end all in terms of future values.

Matt Hasselbeck is on the downside of his career, and Carroll is almost certain to bring in another quarterback. Who knows, he could take someone like Sam Bradford or Jimmy Clausen in the 2010 NFL Draft.

The running back spot is also a point of contention. Julius Jones was unspectacular while Justin Forsett showed flashes of brilliance. But Carroll’s recent USC teams used multiple backs on offense, so a committee could be imminent.

At wide receiver, I don’t see T.J. Houshmandzadeh or Nate Burleson as having more value under Carroll. But if you look at the numbers of his previous tight ends, it’s hard not to like John Carlson as a potential draft bargain in 2010.