It’s semi-final week in your fantasy playoffs (or, if you’re in a crazy league like some I’m in, you’re starting your playoffs and playing through until the final week of the regular season. Chances are your roster is pretty locked in, but it doesn’t mean there’s no more advice to give – in fact, I can’t believe there’s some things that owners are still ignoring even as we hit Week 15.
So in no particular order, here’s what’s on my mind today.
1.) Don’t play any RB against the 49ers. Just don’t do it. Your RB is not the special RB who will have a good day. It’s like this: If a really hot girl is dating your best friend, and the reason they’re dating is because she cheated on her old boyfriend with your best friend, see the field. Tell him he’s not the special one, and if she cheated on the other guy with him, she’ll cheat on him with another guy. That’s who she is. The 49ers defense has allowed zero rushing TD’s this season. About 70 yards per game on the ground. Beanie Wells had 2.7 fantasy points Sunday. Sit Rashard Mendenhall this week. Sit Marshawn Lynch the week after. I know, Lynch has been great. He’s not special.
2.) Don’t play a QB against the Ravens. The math is simple: We’ve been through 14 weeks, and the Ravens have allowed 9 TD passes. So that means Chargers QB Philip Rivers, as good as he’s been lately, can have a seat this week. Some trends you just can’t ignore.
3.) Don’t play a WR against Darrelle Revis, unless it’s the next two weeks. Wait, what? Yes, Revis is a no-fly zone. No one succeeds against him. However, the teams who need to be wary are those who have a clear-cut No. 1 WR, because that’s the player who gets taken out of the game. That’s not the case the next two weeks. Revis will spend some time on DeSean Jackson and some on Jeremy Maclin. So you can play both of them and have hope for production. Christmas Eve, it’s the Giants in town (okay it’s their stadium too but they are the visitors). Revis can’t focus solely on Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz, so you can play both.
4.) Don’t be afraid of riding with Tim Tebow the rest of the way. Tebow continues to produce against all kinds of defenses in so many ways. He has a great matchup this week against New England. Is he an elite fantasy QB? No, but if you don’t have Aaron Rodgers, Eli Manning, Cam Newton, Tom Brady or Drew Brees? He’s a great option and you can play him with confidence. He’ll give you 15 points per week at least and has the potential for 20-plus.
5.) Play ANY quarterback against the Patriots. That means Tebow this week, whoever plays for Miami next week, and Ryan Fitzpatrick if you’re in a league with a Week 17 title game. Why? Look at the numbers the Pats have given up to even the most pedestrian QB’s this season: Chad Henne threw for 400 in the opener. Jason Campbell threw for 344. I should just stop there, but in the last three weeks it was Vince Young (400), Dan Orlovsky (353) and Rex Grossman (250). It’s a fantasy bonanza. Take advantage of it.
See Jason Smith on “NFL Fantasy Live,” airing Sundays at 11:30 a.m. ET on the “NFL RedZone” channel, and Tuesday-Friday on NFL Network at 2 p.m. ET and 12 a.m. ET/9 p.m. PT. He writes Fantasy and other NFL pith on NFL.com daily. Talk to him on Twitter @howaboutafresca. He only asks you never bring up when the Jets play poorly.