Numbers say Manning will regress in 2010

Who are the top fantasy quarterbacks this season? We discuss that on the NFL.com Fantasy Preview Show, which airs tonight at 9 p.m. ET. I’m a little skeptical of Peyton Manning this season, based on the performance of past Super Bowl losers. Take a look at this list.

  • Kurt Warner 2001: 16 games, 4,830 yards, 36 TDs.
    Year after losing Super Bowl: 7 games, 1,431 yards, 3 TDs.
  • Rich Gannon 2002: 16 games, 4,689 yards, 26 TDs.
    Year after losing Super Bowl: 7 games, 1,274 yards, 6 TDs.
  • Jake Delhomme 2003: 16 games, 3,219 yards, 19 TDs.
    Year after losing Super Bowl: 16 games, 3,886 yards, 29 TDs.
  • Donovan McNabb 2004: 15 games, 3,875 yards, 31 TDs.
    Year after losing Super Bowl: 9 games, 2,507 yards, 16 TDs.
  • Matt Hasselbeck 2005: 16 games, 3459 yards, 24 TDs.
    Year after losing Super Bowl: 12 games, 2442 yards, 18 TDs.
  • Rex Grossman 2006: 16 games, 3,193 yards, 23 TDs.
    Year after losing Super Bowl: 8 games, 1,411 yards, 4 TDs.
  • Tom Brady 2007: 16 games, 4,806 yards, 50 TDs.
    Year after losing Super Bowl: Half a game, 76 yards, 0 TDs.
  • Warner 2008: 16 games, 4,583 yards, 30 TDs.
    Year after losing Super Bowl: 15 games, 3,753 yards, 26 TDs.

The evidence is rather compelling.

And no, Manning never denied me an autograph when I was a kid. Which would have been awkward considering that I’m older than him. But just look at the numbers. If you think that Manning is an automatic lock for 4,500 yards and 35 TDs, well, enjoy the consolation round in your fantasy playoffs.

Adam Rank

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