Expert leagues show trends in fantasy football drafts

Aaron Rodgers finished second in fantasy points in 2008 among all players on NFL.com. (Jonathan Daniel / Getty Images)

Aaron Rodgers finished second in fantasy points in 2008 among all players on NFL.com. (Jonathan Daniel / Getty Images)

The calendar might say May, but it’s a very busy time of year in the fantasy football industry.

With the NFL Draft in the rearview mirror and most of the big-name free agents off the market, a number of websites and print publications are holding expert league drafts for their fantasy football magazines.

I participated in three such drafts last week and noticed a few trends that will interest fantasy leaguers.

First, 89 percent of all the first-round picks were running backs. The lone non-runners to be taken in the opening round were Drew Brees and Larry Fitzgerald. The consensus No. 1 overall pick, Adrian Peterson, was the first player taken in two drafts.

Matt Forte went ahead of Peterson in a PPR league.

It was also a surprise to see how the experts drafted quarterbacks. An average of around seven signal-callers were selected in the first five rounds (60 picks) of each of the three drafts. Solid quarterbacks like Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers and Kurt Warner were still on the board in the fourth and fifth rounds of every draft.

Rodgers, who finished second in fantasy points among all players on NFL.com last season, wasn’t taken until the fifth round in two of the three drafts. Rivers, the third-leading fantasy scorer in 2008, was still available at the start of Round 5 in every draft.

While all leagues and draft flows are different, this could be a sign that good quarterbacks will slide.

The final trend I saw was the continued importance of wide receivers in the earlier rounds. Despite decreased numbers from stars like Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, Braylon Edwards and Chad Ochocinco last season, at least 23 wideouts went in the first five rounds of every draft.

Madden cover boy Larry Fitzgerald was the first receiver taken across the board.

Based on the results of these drafts, a strategy that includes taking two running backs and two wide receivers in the first four rounds and a quarterback in the fifth looks solid. You could wait even longer to take a quarterback in some formats, especially those that reward just four points for passing touchdowns.

Believe it or not, you could land Jay Cutler in the middle to late rounds. He wasn’t taken until the ninth round in two of the three drafts.

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